ASEAN telah mendorong untuk menjaga Asia Tenggara daripada perlumbaan senjata nuklear. Walau bagaimanapun, dengan campur tangan ketenteraan yang semakin meningkat dari pelaku antarabangsa, Negara-negara Asia Tenggara boleh mempertimbangkan semula pilihan tersebut untuk memastikan keselamatan mereka.
oleh Umair Jamal
Bulan lepas, ASEAN reiterated its support for all international efforts towards non-proliferation and disarmament of weapons of mass destruction. Speaking on behalf of ASEAN, the Vietnamese ambassador to the United Nations kepada the UN General Assembly’s Disarmament and International Security Committee that Southeast Asia remains steadfast in its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons.
Selama bertahun, Southeast Asia has shown leadership in establishing a new order on the disarmament of nuclear weapons. The arms buildup in Southeast Asia remains focused on acquiring conventional weapons and the proliferation of nuclear weapons is not part of the region’s security landscape.
Walau bagaimanapun, the looming fears of extra-regional military interventions and rivalries risk forcing Southeast Asia towards the path of embracing nuclear weapons in an effort to achieve security.
Has the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Treaty been effective?
The Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) was signed in 1971 by the five original members of ASEAN in Kuala Lumpur. Walau bagaimanapun, the treaty didn’t lead to any serious steps towards establishing such a zone until the mid-1980s due to the adverse political environment in Southeast Asia.
After a decade of negotiating and drafting efforts by ASEAN, the SEANWFZ Treaty was signed by all 10 ASEAN member states in 1995.
Under the treaty, all signatories of SEANWFZ are “obliged not to develop, manufacture or otherwise acquire, possess or have control over nuclear weapons; station nuclear weapons; or test or use nuclear weapons anywhere inside or outside the treaty zone.” Furthermore, the treaty includes protocols that aim to ensure compliance from all member states. misalnya, “the treaty gives each State Party the right to ask another State Party for clarification or a fact-finding mission to resolve an ambiguous situation or one which may give rise to doubts about compliance.”
ASEAN members continue to reaffirm the importance the treaty and its protocols. misalnya, semasa 2018 Preparatory Committee for the 2020 review of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Vietnammenegaskan the importance of SEANWFZ and called on nuclear weapons states to consider joining the treaty. baru-baru ini, Thailandratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). With Thailand’s ratification, semua 10 ASEAN countries have now ratified the treaty.
On the whole, the SEANWFZ treaty has served well when it comes to developing a consensus to keep the region free from nuclear weapons. Walau bagaimanapun, a lot needs to be done to make the treaty more effective and binding.
misalnya, Southeast Asia doesn’t have a legally-binding document that frames the regional security architecture. Dengan cara yang, SEANWFZ has yet to be effectively established as it doesn’t have a working group of its own or a proper secretariat to support enforcement. The treaty remains relevant because individual states are careful not to move beyond the realm of conventional security.
Is there a possibility of a nuclear arms race due to inter-state conflicts in Southeast Asia?
Pada masa ini, Southeast Asia doesn’t have a rivalry similar to that of Pakistan and India in South Asia. Since the settlement of the Cambodia conflict in the early 1990s, Southeast Asia’s ideological and security rivalries have evolved into economic linkages and political cooperation.
lebih-lebih lagi, while some Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are interested in nuclear power generation, this is highly unlikely to lead to nuclear weapons proliferation—all ASEAN member states are signatories to the NPT.
tambahan pula, arms buildup in Southeast Asia is limited to conventional weapons and ASEAN doesn’t have a major conflict that could present an existential threat for any country in the region. lebih-lebih lagi, all countries in the region understand what a push to acquire nuclear weapons would mean for the region’s economy and security. Any such push would require massive resources and will only lead to a weapons race—something that Southeast Asia is neither ready to accept nor capable of sustaining.
Can a US-China-Russia arms race force ASEAN into considering nuclear weapons?
Walau bagaimanapun, a threat from outside the region may force ASEAN states to look into nuclear weapons. Pada tahun 2001, the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, clearing all restrictions on developing strategic defense systems. Pada tahun 2019, the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The decision was reportedly motivated by the desire to implement military programs in the Asia-Pacific. Arguably, program ketenteraan seperti itu hanya dapat difokuskan pada China dan Rusia.
Dengan ASEAN berada di tengah persaingan China-AS, negara anggota mungkin menghadapi ancaman keselamatan yang serius dari luar wilayah.
Ada kemungkinan bahawa ASEAN boleh kehilangan sikap berkecuali jika ketegangan antara China, Rusia dan AS terus bermain di rantau ini. Persaingan kuasa besar yang semakin meningkat ini akan menyebabkan penurunan ketara dalam keselamatan keseluruhan negara anggota ASEAN. Dalam persekitaran di mana negara anggota ASEAN takut serangan ketenteraan dari negara-negara seperti China, kemungkinan menggunakan teknologi senjata nuklear tidak dapat dikesampingkan.